1
00:00:13,680 --> 00:00:16,416
Many people face the news each morning

2
00:00:16,440 --> 00:00:18,896
with trepidation and dread.

3
00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:21,576
Every day, we read of shootings,

4
00:00:21,600 --> 00:00:25,496
inequality, pollution, dictatorship,

5
00:00:25,520 --> 00:00:28,696
war and the spread of nuclear weapons.

6
00:00:28,720 --> 00:00:30,456
These are some of the reasons

7
00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:35,936
that 2016 was called
the "Worst. Year. Ever."

8
00:00:35,960 --> 00:00:38,536
Until 2017 claimed that record --

9
00:00:38,560 --> 00:00:39,616
(Laughter)

10
00:00:39,640 --> 00:00:42,216
and left many people longing
for earlier decades,

11
00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:45,560
when the world seemed safer,
cleaner and more equal.

12
00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:50,136
But is this a sensible way
to understand the human condition

13
00:00:50,160 --> 00:00:52,136
in the 21st century?

14
00:00:52,160 --> 00:00:54,936
As Franklin Pierce Adams pointed out,

15
00:00:54,960 --> 00:00:57,656
"Nothing is more responsible
for the good old days

16
00:00:57,680 --> 00:00:58,896
than a bad memory."

17
00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:01,656
(Laughter)

18
00:01:01,680 --> 00:01:05,056
You can always fool yourself
into seeing a decline

19
00:01:05,080 --> 00:01:07,776
if you compare bleeding
headlines of the present

20
00:01:07,800 --> 00:01:10,896
with rose-tinted images of the past.

21
00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:13,336
What does the trajectory
of the world look like

22
00:01:13,360 --> 00:01:17,616
when we measure well-being over time
using a constant yardstick?

23
00:01:17,640 --> 00:01:20,336
Let's compare the most recent
data on the present

24
00:01:20,360 --> 00:01:22,360
with the same measures 30 years ago.

25
00:01:23,320 --> 00:01:28,456
Last year, Americans killed each other
at a rate of 5.3 per hundred thousand,

26
00:01:28,480 --> 00:01:31,856
had seven percent
of their citizens in poverty

27
00:01:31,880 --> 00:01:35,136
and emitted 21 million tons
of particulate matter

28
00:01:35,160 --> 00:01:38,256
and four million tons of sulfur dioxide.

29
00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:42,416
But 30 years ago, the homicide rate
was 8.5 per hundred thousand,

30
00:01:42,440 --> 00:01:44,536
poverty rate was 12 percent

31
00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:47,736
and we emitted 35 million tons
of particulate matter

32
00:01:47,760 --> 00:01:50,480
and 20 million tons of sulfur dioxide.

33
00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:53,456
What about the world as a whole?

34
00:01:53,480 --> 00:01:56,896
Last year, the world had 12 ongoing wars,

35
00:01:56,920 --> 00:01:59,056
60 autocracies,

36
00:01:59,080 --> 00:02:02,696
10 percent of the world population
in extreme poverty

37
00:02:02,720 --> 00:02:05,696
and more than 10,000 nuclear weapons.

38
00:02:05,720 --> 00:02:08,216
But 30 years ago, there were 23 wars,

39
00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:10,136
85 autocracies,

40
00:02:10,160 --> 00:02:13,776
37 percent of the world population
in extreme poverty

41
00:02:13,800 --> 00:02:16,600
and more than 60,000 nuclear weapons.

42
00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:21,735
True, last year was a terrible year
for terrorism in Western Europe,

43
00:02:21,759 --> 00:02:23,976
with 238 deaths,

44
00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:27,200
but 1988 was worse with 440 deaths.

45
00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:29,976
What's going on?

46
00:02:30,000 --> 00:02:33,496
Was 1988 a particularly bad year?

47
00:02:33,520 --> 00:02:37,576
Or are these improvements a sign
that the world, for all its struggles,

48
00:02:37,600 --> 00:02:39,240
gets better over time?

49
00:02:39,800 --> 00:02:44,600
Might we even invoke the admittedly
old-fashioned notion of progress?

50
00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:49,176
To do so is to court
a certain amount of derision,

51
00:02:49,200 --> 00:02:52,976
because I have found
that intellectuals hate progress.

52
00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:54,816
(Laughter)

53
00:02:54,840 --> 00:02:57,656
(Applause)

54
00:02:57,680 --> 00:03:01,376
And intellectuals who call themselves
progressive really hate progress.

55
00:03:01,400 --> 00:03:02,536
(Laughter)

56
00:03:02,560 --> 00:03:05,896
Now, it's not that they hate
the fruits of progress, mind you.

57
00:03:05,920 --> 00:03:08,536
Most academics and pundits

58
00:03:08,560 --> 00:03:12,000
would rather have their surgery
with anesthesia than without it.

59
00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:17,336
It's the idea of progress
that rankles the chattering class.

60
00:03:17,360 --> 00:03:21,096
If you believe that humans
can improve their lot, I have been told,

61
00:03:21,120 --> 00:03:23,496
that means that you have a blind faith

62
00:03:23,520 --> 00:03:28,096
and a quasi-religious belief
in the outmoded superstition

63
00:03:28,120 --> 00:03:31,936
and the false promise
of the myth of the onward march

64
00:03:31,960 --> 00:03:34,000
of inexorable progress.

65
00:03:34,640 --> 00:03:38,976
You are a cheerleader
for vulgar American can-doism,

66
00:03:39,000 --> 00:03:42,216
with the rah-rah spirit
of boardroom ideology,

67
00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:45,296
Silicon Valley
and the Chamber of Commerce.

68
00:03:45,320 --> 00:03:48,176
You are a practitioner of Whig history,

69
00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:52,336
a naive optimist, a Pollyanna
and, of course, a Pangloss,

70
00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:55,016
alluding to the Voltaire
character who declared,

71
00:03:55,040 --> 00:03:58,376
"All is for the best
in the best of all possible worlds."

72
00:03:58,400 --> 00:04:01,896
Well, Professor Pangloss,
as it happens, was a pessimist.

73
00:04:01,920 --> 00:04:04,576
A true optimist believes
there can be much better worlds

74
00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:06,136
than the one we have today.

75
00:04:06,160 --> 00:04:07,816
But all of this is irrelevant,

76
00:04:07,840 --> 00:04:10,616
because the question
of whether progress has taken place

77
00:04:10,640 --> 00:04:12,376
is not a matter of faith

78
00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:16,216
or having an optimistic temperament
or seeing the glass as half full.

79
00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:18,080
It's a testable hypothesis.

80
00:04:18,720 --> 00:04:20,096
For all their differences,

81
00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:24,496
people largely agree
on what goes into human well-being:

82
00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:30,216
life, health, sustenance, prosperity,
peace, freedom, safety, knowledge,

83
00:04:30,240 --> 00:04:32,216
leisure, happiness.

84
00:04:32,240 --> 00:04:34,136
All of these things can be measured.

85
00:04:34,160 --> 00:04:38,496
If they have improved over time,
that, I submit, is progress.

86
00:04:38,520 --> 00:04:40,136
Let's go to the data,

87
00:04:40,160 --> 00:04:43,776
beginning with the most
precious thing of all, life.

88
00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:48,376
For most of human history,
life expectancy at birth was around 30.

89
00:04:48,400 --> 00:04:51,176
Today, worldwide, it is more than 70,

90
00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:53,136
and in the developed parts of the world,

91
00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:54,360
more than 80.

92
00:04:55,040 --> 00:04:58,176
250 years ago, in the richest
countries of the world,

93
00:04:58,200 --> 00:05:02,216
a third of the children
did not live to see their fifth birthday,

94
00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:05,576
before the risk was brought
down a hundredfold.

95
00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:08,856
Today, that fate befalls
less than six percent of children

96
00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:10,720
in the poorest countries of the world.

97
00:05:11,600 --> 00:05:15,016
Famine is one of the Four Horsemen
of the Apocalypse.

98
00:05:15,040 --> 00:05:18,296
It could bring devastation
to any part of the world.

99
00:05:18,320 --> 00:05:20,256
Today, famine has been banished

100
00:05:20,280 --> 00:05:22,880
to the most remote
and war-ravaged regions.

101
00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:26,816
200 years ago, 90 percent
of the world's population

102
00:05:26,840 --> 00:05:29,016
subsisted in extreme poverty.

103
00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:31,600
Today, fewer than 10 percent of people do.

104
00:05:32,720 --> 00:05:34,216
For most of human history,

105
00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:36,296
the powerful states and empires

106
00:05:36,320 --> 00:05:38,936
were pretty much always
at war with each other,

107
00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:42,416
and peace was a mere
interlude between wars.

108
00:05:42,440 --> 00:05:44,696
Today, they are never
at war with each other.

109
00:05:44,720 --> 00:05:46,016
The last great power war

110
00:05:46,040 --> 00:05:49,160
pitted the United States
against China 65 years ago.

111
00:05:50,160 --> 00:05:54,896
More recently, wars of all kinds
have become fewer and less deadly.

112
00:05:54,920 --> 00:05:59,376
The annual rate of war has fallen from
about 22 per hundred thousand per year

113
00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:03,016
in the early '50s to 1.2 today.

114
00:06:03,040 --> 00:06:05,616
Democracy has suffered obvious setbacks

115
00:06:05,640 --> 00:06:09,256
in Venezuela, in Russia, in Turkey

116
00:06:09,280 --> 00:06:12,376
and is threatened by the rise
of authoritarian populism

117
00:06:12,400 --> 00:06:15,016
in Eastern Europe and the United States.

118
00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:17,736
Yet the world has never been
more democratic

119
00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:19,736
than it has been in the past decade,

120
00:06:19,760 --> 00:06:22,960
with two-thirds of the world's people
living in democracies.

121
00:06:24,280 --> 00:06:28,416
Homicide rates plunge whenever anarchy
and the code of vendetta

122
00:06:28,440 --> 00:06:30,816
are replaced by the rule of law.

123
00:06:30,840 --> 00:06:35,056
It happened when feudal Europe was brought
under the control of centralized kingdoms,

124
00:06:35,080 --> 00:06:37,216
so that today a Western European

125
00:06:37,240 --> 00:06:39,816
has 1/35th the chance of being murdered

126
00:06:39,840 --> 00:06:42,416
compared to his medieval ancestors.

127
00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:44,896
It happened again in colonial New England,

128
00:06:44,920 --> 00:06:48,456
in the American Wild West
when the sheriffs moved to town,

129
00:06:48,480 --> 00:06:50,176
and in Mexico.

130
00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:53,720
Indeed, we've become safer
in just about every way.

131
00:06:54,560 --> 00:06:58,096
Over the last century,
we've become 96 percent less likely

132
00:06:58,120 --> 00:07:00,376
to be killed in a car crash,

133
00:07:00,400 --> 00:07:04,336
88 percent less likely
to be mowed down on the sidewalk,

134
00:07:04,360 --> 00:07:08,096
99 percent less likely
to die in a plane crash,

135
00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:11,776
95 percent less likely
to be killed on the job,

136
00:07:11,800 --> 00:07:15,416
89 percent less likely
to be killed by an act of God,

137
00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:19,376
such as a drought, flood,
wildfire, storm, volcano,

138
00:07:19,400 --> 00:07:22,056
landslide, earthquake or meteor strike,

139
00:07:22,080 --> 00:07:25,336
presumably not because God
has become less angry with us

140
00:07:25,360 --> 00:07:30,096
but because of improvements
in the resilience of our infrastructure.

141
00:07:30,120 --> 00:07:33,376
And what about
the quintessential act of God,

142
00:07:33,400 --> 00:07:36,896
the projectile hurled by Zeus himself?

143
00:07:36,920 --> 00:07:41,160
Yes, we are 97 percent less likely
to be killed by a bolt of lightning.

144
00:07:43,480 --> 00:07:45,136
Before the 17th century,

145
00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:48,696
no more than 15 percent of Europeans
could read or write.

146
00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:51,856
Europe and the United States
achieved universal literacy

147
00:07:51,880 --> 00:07:53,816
by the middle of the 20th century,

148
00:07:53,840 --> 00:07:56,336
and the rest of the world is catching up.

149
00:07:56,360 --> 00:07:59,776
Today, more than 90 percent
of the world's population

150
00:07:59,800 --> 00:08:02,240
under the age of 25 can read and write.

151
00:08:03,440 --> 00:08:07,416
In the 19th century, Westerners
worked more than 60 hours per week.

152
00:08:07,440 --> 00:08:09,360
Today, they work fewer than 40.

153
00:08:10,440 --> 00:08:14,856
Thanks to the universal penetration
of running water and electricity

154
00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:16,256
in the developed world

155
00:08:16,280 --> 00:08:20,256
and the widespread adoption
of washing machines, vacuum cleaners,

156
00:08:20,280 --> 00:08:24,256
refrigerators, dishwashers,
stoves and microwaves,

157
00:08:24,280 --> 00:08:27,176
the amount of our lives
that we forfeit to housework

158
00:08:27,200 --> 00:08:29,576
has fallen from 60 hours a week

159
00:08:29,600 --> 00:08:31,560
to fewer than 15 hours a week.

160
00:08:32,760 --> 00:08:37,296
Do all of these gains in health,
wealth, safety, knowledge and leisure

161
00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:39,016
make us any happier?

162
00:08:39,039 --> 00:08:40,255
The answer is yes.

163
00:08:40,280 --> 00:08:42,456
In 86 percent of the world's countries,

164
00:08:42,480 --> 00:08:44,840
happiness has increased in recent decades.

165
00:08:45,799 --> 00:08:47,535
Well, I hope to have convinced you

166
00:08:47,559 --> 00:08:50,976
that progress is not a matter
of faith or optimism,

167
00:08:51,000 --> 00:08:53,135
but is a fact of human history,

168
00:08:53,159 --> 00:08:55,720
indeed the greatest fact in human history.

169
00:08:56,480 --> 00:08:59,296
And how has this fact
been covered in the news?

170
00:08:59,320 --> 00:09:02,480
(Laughter)

171
00:09:03,360 --> 00:09:07,336
A tabulation of positive and negative
emotion words in news stories

172
00:09:07,360 --> 00:09:11,016
has shown that during the decades
in which humanity has gotten healthier,

173
00:09:11,040 --> 00:09:13,856
wealthier, wiser, safer and happier,

174
00:09:13,880 --> 00:09:17,976
the "New York Times"
has become increasingly morose

175
00:09:18,000 --> 00:09:21,600
and the world's broadcasts too
have gotten steadily glummer.

176
00:09:22,720 --> 00:09:25,416
Why don't people appreciate progress?

177
00:09:25,440 --> 00:09:28,416
Part of the answer comes
from our cognitive psychology.

178
00:09:28,440 --> 00:09:33,456
We estimate risk using a mental shortcut
called the "availability heuristic."

179
00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:36,256
The easier it is to recall
something from memory,

180
00:09:36,280 --> 00:09:38,280
the more probable we judge it to be.

181
00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:42,816
The other part of the answer
comes from the nature of journalism,

182
00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:46,216
captured in this satirical headline
from "The Onion,"

183
00:09:46,240 --> 00:09:48,296
"CNN Holds Morning Meeting to Decide

184
00:09:48,320 --> 00:09:50,616
What Viewers Should
Panic About For Rest of Day."

185
00:09:50,640 --> 00:09:52,336
(Laughter)

186
00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:56,400
(Applause)

187
00:09:57,160 --> 00:10:00,976
News is about stuff that happens,
not stuff that doesn't happen.

188
00:10:01,000 --> 00:10:03,376
You never see a journalist who says,

189
00:10:03,400 --> 00:10:07,616
"I'm reporting live from a country
that has been at peace for 40 years,"

190
00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:10,280
or a city that has not
been attacked by terrorists.

191
00:10:10,960 --> 00:10:13,296
Also, bad things can happen quickly,

192
00:10:13,320 --> 00:10:15,736
but good things aren't built in a day.

193
00:10:15,760 --> 00:10:17,656
The papers could have run the headline,

194
00:10:17,680 --> 00:10:22,056
"137,000 people escaped
from extreme poverty yesterday"

195
00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:24,936
every day for the last 25 years.

196
00:10:24,960 --> 00:10:29,176
That's one and a quarter billion people
leaving poverty behind,

197
00:10:29,200 --> 00:10:31,216
but you never read about it.

198
00:10:31,240 --> 00:10:34,536
Also, the news capitalizes
on our morbid interest

199
00:10:34,560 --> 00:10:35,816
in what can go wrong,

200
00:10:35,840 --> 00:10:40,176
captured in the programming policy,
"If it bleeds, it leads."

201
00:10:40,200 --> 00:10:43,936
Well, if you combine our cognitive biases
with the nature of news,

202
00:10:43,960 --> 00:10:46,656
you can see why the world
has been coming to an end

203
00:10:46,680 --> 00:10:48,640
for a very long time indeed.

204
00:10:50,840 --> 00:10:52,936
Let me address
some questions about progress

205
00:10:52,960 --> 00:10:55,320
that no doubt have occurred
to many of you.

206
00:10:56,320 --> 00:10:59,056
First, isn't it good to be pessimistic

207
00:10:59,080 --> 00:11:01,496
to safeguard against complacency,

208
00:11:01,520 --> 00:11:04,176
to rake the muck, to speak truth to power?

209
00:11:04,200 --> 00:11:06,176
Well, not exactly.

210
00:11:06,200 --> 00:11:08,176
It's good to be accurate.

211
00:11:08,200 --> 00:11:10,656
Of course we should be aware
of suffering and danger

212
00:11:10,680 --> 00:11:12,096
wherever they occur,

213
00:11:12,120 --> 00:11:15,136
but we should also be aware
of how they can be reduced,

214
00:11:15,160 --> 00:11:18,656
because there are dangers
to indiscriminate pessimism.

215
00:11:18,680 --> 00:11:20,336
One of them is fatalism.

216
00:11:20,360 --> 00:11:22,536
If all our efforts at improving the world

217
00:11:22,560 --> 00:11:23,856
have been in vain,

218
00:11:23,880 --> 00:11:25,736
why throw good money after bad?

219
00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:27,332
The poor will always be with you.

220
00:11:28,280 --> 00:11:30,576
And since the world will end soon --

221
00:11:30,600 --> 00:11:32,456
if climate change doesn't kill us all,

222
00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:34,936
then runaway artificial
intelligence will --

223
00:11:34,960 --> 00:11:38,576
a natural response is
to enjoy life while we can,

224
00:11:38,600 --> 00:11:41,360
eat, drink and be merry,
for tomorrow we die.

225
00:11:42,840 --> 00:11:46,136
The other danger of thoughtless
pessimism is radicalism.

226
00:11:46,160 --> 00:11:50,176
If our institutions are all failing
and beyond hope for reform,

227
00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:53,856
a natural response
is to seek to smash the machine,

228
00:11:53,880 --> 00:11:55,096
drain the swamp,

229
00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:56,896
burn the empire to the ground,

230
00:11:56,920 --> 00:12:00,216
on the hope that whatever
rises out of the ashes

231
00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:02,480
is bound to be better
than what we have now.

232
00:12:03,920 --> 00:12:05,976
Well, if there is
such a thing as progress,

233
00:12:06,000 --> 00:12:07,256
what causes it?

234
00:12:07,280 --> 00:12:12,456
Progress is not some mystical force
or dialectic lifting us ever higher.

235
00:12:12,480 --> 00:12:16,056
It's not a mysterious arc of history
bending toward justice.

236
00:12:16,080 --> 00:12:19,816
It's the result of human efforts
governed by an idea,

237
00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:23,856
an idea that we associate
with the 18th century Enlightenment,

238
00:12:23,880 --> 00:12:28,216
namely that if we apply reason and science

239
00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:30,296
that enhance human well-being,

240
00:12:30,320 --> 00:12:31,960
we can gradually succeed.

241
00:12:32,680 --> 00:12:36,136
Is progress inevitable? Of course not.

242
00:12:36,160 --> 00:12:39,176
Progress does not mean
that everything becomes better

243
00:12:39,200 --> 00:12:42,136
for everyone everywhere all the time.

244
00:12:42,160 --> 00:12:45,416
That would be a miracle,
and progress is not a miracle

245
00:12:45,440 --> 00:12:46,640
but problem-solving.

246
00:12:47,360 --> 00:12:49,216
Problems are inevitable

247
00:12:49,240 --> 00:12:52,920
and solutions create new problems
which have to be solved in their turn.

248
00:12:53,760 --> 00:12:57,456
The unsolved problems
facing the world today are gargantuan,

249
00:12:57,480 --> 00:13:00,256
including the risks of climate change

250
00:13:00,280 --> 00:13:01,896
and nuclear war,

251
00:13:01,920 --> 00:13:04,456
but we must see them
as problems to be solved,

252
00:13:04,480 --> 00:13:06,896
not apocalypses in waiting,

253
00:13:06,920 --> 00:13:09,176
and aggressively pursue solutions

254
00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:12,056
like Deep Decarbonization
for climate change

255
00:13:12,080 --> 00:13:14,280
and Global Zero for nuclear war.

256
00:13:15,760 --> 00:13:19,656
Finally, does the Enlightenment
go against human nature?

257
00:13:19,680 --> 00:13:21,976
This is an acute question for me,

258
00:13:22,000 --> 00:13:25,416
because I'm a prominent advocate
of the existence of human nature,

259
00:13:25,440 --> 00:13:28,856
with all its shortcomings
and perversities.

260
00:13:28,880 --> 00:13:30,296
In my book "The Blank Slate,"

261
00:13:30,320 --> 00:13:34,456
I argued that the human prospect
is more tragic than utopian

262
00:13:34,480 --> 00:13:37,216
and that we are not stardust,
we are not golden

263
00:13:37,240 --> 00:13:39,776
and there's no way
we are getting back to the garden.

264
00:13:39,800 --> 00:13:42,296
(Laughter)

265
00:13:42,320 --> 00:13:44,616
But my worldview has lightened up

266
00:13:44,640 --> 00:13:47,576
in the 15 years since
"The Blank Slate" was published.

267
00:13:47,600 --> 00:13:50,536
My acquaintance with
the statistics of human progress,

268
00:13:50,560 --> 00:13:51,896
starting with violence

269
00:13:51,920 --> 00:13:55,696
but now encompassing
every other aspect of our well-being,

270
00:13:55,720 --> 00:13:57,296
has fortified my belief

271
00:13:57,320 --> 00:14:00,496
that in understanding
our tribulations and woes,

272
00:14:00,520 --> 00:14:02,296
human nature is the problem,

273
00:14:02,320 --> 00:14:06,656
but human nature, channeled
by Enlightenment norms and institutions,

274
00:14:06,680 --> 00:14:07,880
is also the solution.

275
00:14:09,200 --> 00:14:14,096
Admittedly, it's not easy
to replicate my own data-driven epiphany

276
00:14:14,120 --> 00:14:16,456
with humanity at large.

277
00:14:16,480 --> 00:14:18,296
Some intellectuals have responded

278
00:14:18,320 --> 00:14:21,016
with fury to my book "Enlightenment Now,"

279
00:14:21,040 --> 00:14:25,296
saying first how dare he claim
that intellectuals hate progress,

280
00:14:25,320 --> 00:14:28,456
and second, how dare he claim
that there has been progress.

281
00:14:28,480 --> 00:14:31,160
(Laughter)

282
00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:35,856
With others, the idea of progress
just leaves them cold.

283
00:14:35,880 --> 00:14:37,576
Saving the lives of billions,

284
00:14:37,600 --> 00:14:40,496
eradicating disease, feeding the hungry,

285
00:14:40,520 --> 00:14:41,960
teaching kids to read?

286
00:14:42,560 --> 00:14:43,760
Boring.

287
00:14:44,720 --> 00:14:49,216
At the same time, the most common response
I have received from readers is gratitude,

288
00:14:49,240 --> 00:14:51,616
gratitude for changing
their view of the world

289
00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:54,176
from a numb and helpless fatalism

290
00:14:54,200 --> 00:14:55,856
to something more constructive,

291
00:14:55,880 --> 00:14:57,616
even heroic.

292
00:14:57,640 --> 00:14:59,816
I believe that the ideals
of the Enlightenment

293
00:14:59,840 --> 00:15:01,856
can be cast a stirring narrative,

294
00:15:01,880 --> 00:15:04,696
and I hope that people
with greater artistic flare

295
00:15:04,720 --> 00:15:06,736
and rhetorical power than I

296
00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:09,776
can tell it better and spread it further.

297
00:15:09,800 --> 00:15:11,240
It goes something like this.

298
00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:14,896
We are born into a pitiless universe,

299
00:15:14,920 --> 00:15:18,096
facing steep odds
against life-enabling order

300
00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:20,520
and in constant jeopardy of falling apart.

301
00:15:21,360 --> 00:15:24,760
We were shaped by a process
that is ruthlessly competitive.

302
00:15:25,720 --> 00:15:27,496
We are made from crooked timber,

303
00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:30,536
vulnerable to illusions, self-centeredness

304
00:15:30,560 --> 00:15:32,800
and at times astounding stupidity.

305
00:15:33,800 --> 00:15:36,536
Yet human nature has also
been blessed with resources

306
00:15:36,560 --> 00:15:38,840
that open a space
for a kind of redemption.

307
00:15:39,640 --> 00:15:42,896
We are endowed with the power
to combine ideas recursively,

308
00:15:42,920 --> 00:15:45,376
to have thoughts about our thoughts.

309
00:15:45,400 --> 00:15:47,296
We have an instinct for language,

310
00:15:47,320 --> 00:15:50,760
allowing us to share the fruits
of our ingenuity and experience.

311
00:15:51,760 --> 00:15:54,416
We are deepened
with the capacity for sympathy,

312
00:15:54,440 --> 00:15:58,560
for pity, imagination,
compassion, commiseration.

313
00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:03,256
These endowments have found ways
to magnify their own power.

314
00:16:03,280 --> 00:16:05,296
The scope of language has been augmented

315
00:16:05,320 --> 00:16:08,160
by the written, printed
and electronic word.

316
00:16:09,280 --> 00:16:11,296
Our circle of sympathy has been expanded

317
00:16:11,320 --> 00:16:14,400
by history, journalism
and the narrative arts.

318
00:16:15,160 --> 00:16:18,016
And our puny rational faculties
have been multiplied

319
00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:20,736
by the norms and institutions of reason,

320
00:16:20,760 --> 00:16:24,056
intellectual curiosity, open debate,

321
00:16:24,080 --> 00:16:26,776
skepticism of authority and dogma

322
00:16:26,800 --> 00:16:29,176
and the burden of proof to verify ideas

323
00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:31,080
by confronting them against reality.

324
00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:34,856
As the spiral of recursive improvement

325
00:16:34,880 --> 00:16:36,496
gathers momentum,

326
00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:40,056
we eke out victories
against the forces that grind us down,

327
00:16:40,080 --> 00:16:43,336
not least the darker parts
of our own nature.

328
00:16:43,360 --> 00:16:48,096
We penetrate the mysteries
of the cosmos, including life and mind.

329
00:16:48,120 --> 00:16:51,976
We live longer, suffer less, learn more,

330
00:16:52,000 --> 00:16:54,856
get smarter and enjoy more small pleasures

331
00:16:54,880 --> 00:16:56,200
and rich experiences.

332
00:16:57,080 --> 00:17:01,696
Fewer of us are killed,
assaulted, enslaved, exploited

333
00:17:01,720 --> 00:17:03,736
or oppressed by the others.

334
00:17:03,760 --> 00:17:08,256
From a few oases, the territories
with peace and prosperity are growing

335
00:17:08,280 --> 00:17:10,640
and could someday encompass the globe.

336
00:17:11,839 --> 00:17:13,735
Much suffering remains

337
00:17:13,760 --> 00:17:15,496
and tremendous peril,

338
00:17:15,520 --> 00:17:18,256
but ideas on how to reduce them
have been voiced,

339
00:17:18,280 --> 00:17:22,175
and an infinite number of others
are yet to be conceived.

340
00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:24,616
We will never have a perfect world,

341
00:17:24,640 --> 00:17:26,896
and it would be dangerous to seek one.

342
00:17:26,920 --> 00:17:29,455
But there's no limit
to the betterments we can attain

343
00:17:29,480 --> 00:17:33,359
if we continue to apply knowledge
to enhance human flourishing.

344
00:17:34,760 --> 00:17:37,896
This heroic story
is not just another myth.

345
00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:40,976
Myths are fictions, but this one is true,

346
00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:44,936
true to the best of our knowledge,
which is the only truth we can have.

347
00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:46,176
As we learn more,

348
00:17:46,200 --> 00:17:50,656
we can show which parts of the story
continue to be true and which ones false,

349
00:17:50,680 --> 00:17:53,480
as any of them might be
and any could become.

350
00:17:54,320 --> 00:17:56,856
And this story belongs not to any tribe

351
00:17:56,880 --> 00:17:58,736
but to all of humanity,

352
00:17:58,760 --> 00:18:02,456
to any sentient creature
with the power of reason

353
00:18:02,480 --> 00:18:05,376
and the urge to persist in its being,

354
00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:07,336
for it requires only the convictions

355
00:18:07,360 --> 00:18:09,536
that life is better than death,

356
00:18:09,560 --> 00:18:11,496
health is better than sickness,

357
00:18:11,520 --> 00:18:13,656
abundance is better than want,

358
00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:16,096
freedom is better than coercion,

359
00:18:16,120 --> 00:18:18,296
happiness is better than suffering

360
00:18:18,320 --> 00:18:21,720
and knowledge is better
than ignorance and superstition.

361
00:18:22,520 --> 00:18:23,736
Thank you.

362
00:18:23,760 --> 00:18:27,560
(Applause)